The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 4 November, 2024

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Russia Launches New Nuclear-Powered Icebreaker in Gulf of Finland

On November 6, The Barents Observer reported that Russia launched its fifth and newest nuclear-powered icebreaker of the Arktika-class, the Chukotka, as part of the Project 22220 series. The 173-meter vessel, decorated with Russian tricolor balloons and flags of Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), entered the Gulf of Finland waters in a ceremony observed remotely by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Chukotka is expected to begin Arctic operations in early 2026, joining four existing Arktika-class icebreakers. (The Barents Observer)

Take 1: The launch of the Chukotka marks a significant step in Moscow’s strategy to solidify its Arctic presence, along with three other planned nuclear icebreakers: the Yakutia is expected by the end of 2024, and Russia announced the construction of two additional icebreakers, Leningrad and Stalingrad, further reinforcing its ability to boost cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and keep it navigable year-round. By strengthening the NSR, Russia aims to assert control over this vital Arctic trade corridor, particularly appealing to Asian partners like China, which seeks Arctic access as part of its ‘Polar Silk Road.’ During the launch ceremony, symbolism played an important role. The vessel bore a Russian flag decorated with smaller flags of the occupied Ukrainian regions. This tacit display of Russia’s war aims in Ukraine on an economic vessel suggests that Moscow is linking its Arctic ambitions to its broader geopolitical strategy and considers Arctic development as part of its wider contest with the West. The vessel’s decoration sends a clear message about Russia’s determination to pursue its Arctic and geopolitical goals, regardless of Western objections and could spur Western countries to counterbalance by enhancing their military presence in the region and increasing investments in Arctic technology, further turning the Arctic into a geopolitical hotbed. Overall, Russia’s increased Arctic capacity enhances its influence in the region and establishes an infrastructure that could serve both economic and defense purposes. (Interfax, Kremlin, Tass, The Barents Observer, The Moscow Times)

Canada Set to Build $6 Billion Arctic Radar to Track Incoming Missiles

Ottawa Citizen reported on November 4 that Canada plans to invest CA$6 billion in a new Arctic radar system, the Polar-Over-the-Horizon Radar, aimed at tracking incoming missiles and providing data to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). Announced in 2022 as part of NORAD’s modernization plan, the radar system will operate continuously with minimal maintenance shutdowns. The radar will also track aerospace and maritime objects, focusing on cruise missiles. Construction is projected to begin in 2030, with Defence Research and Development Canada to conduct site testing and modeling. (Ottawa Citizen)

Take 2: Canada’s planned radar system reflects its intensified commitment to Arctic security, aimed at strengthening missile detection capabilities and enhancing data-sharing with NORAD to bolster continental defense in response to growing threats in the Arctic. This move comes amid increasing demands for Canada by the US and other NATO allies to share more responsibility in North American defense, particularly in the Arctic. The decision to establish a continuous, missile-focused radar network reflects broader anxieties about Russia’s expanding Arctic presence and the increased activity of Chinese vessels in the region. Russia’s extensive military investments, including bases, icebreakers, and missile systems heighten the need for robust surveillance systems that can detect and counter potential incursions. By improving Canada’s Arctic monitoring capacity, the radar could serve as a strategic countermeasure, helping NATO to deter and detect adversarial actions close to its northern perimeter. Moreover, the radar system is anticipated to function year-round and track additional aerospace and maritime activities, a critical feature as Arctic sea ice recedes and traffic in the Northwest Passage intensifies. This aligns with Canada’s broader Arctic defense goals, which include increasing domain awareness and responding proactively to the anticipated rise in commercial and military activity across its northern waters. However, the project’s ambitious timeline and estimated costs raise some concerns. Historically, large Canadian defense projects have faced delays and budget overruns, hindering timely operationalization. The focus on contracting American firms for construction has also sparked frustration among Canadian defense companies, underscoring the tension between national defense needs and economic interests. (Arctic Today, CBC News, Defense News, International Policy Digest, Ottawa Citizen, Toronto Sun)

Study Finds That Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic Have Increased Despite Global Regulations

On November 5, Phys.org shared that a study led by Concordia University and published in Science Advances revealed that despite global decreases in persistent organic pollutants (POPs) since the 2001 Stockholm Convention, levels in the Arctic Ocean have risen. The study analyzed over 10,000 measurements from 1980 to 2023, showing that POPs which originate from elsewhere in the world, are prevalent in Arctic waters and enter the food web. In the region’s cold waters, a phenomenon called cold trapping prolongs these chemical’s half-lives by decades, leading to increased accumulation. (Phys.org)

Take 3: The rise of POPs in the Arctic, despite global regulatory efforts, points to yet another environmental challenge for the region. The study found that the levels of these toxic chemicals have declined in all but one of the world’s oceans: the Arctic Ocean, revealing that the Arctic is becoming a ‘sink’ for legacy POPs, highlighting the region’s unique vulnerability and the limitations of existing global governance frameworks. Historically, long-range atmospheric transport carried POPs to the Arctic, but as new emissions have decreased, ocean currents have become the primary pathway for these pollutants. This shift means that, even with reduced global production, the Arctic continues to accumulate toxic chemicals as they are carried northward. The cold, icy conditions of the Arctic prolong the lifespan of these pollutants through ‘cold trapping’, leading to higher concentrations that pose threats to local ecosystems and communities, particularly those relying on marine wildlife for subsistence. The findings of this study expose the limitations of current international environmental regulations, which are often based on managing emissions at their source rather than addressing long-term pollutant transport through oceanic pathways. The persistence of these pollutants in Arctic waters raises ethical concerns, as many of these chemicals originate outside the region but disproportionately affect Arctic populations. This creates a need for international cooperation and justice frameworks that address the responsibilities of nations contributing to this contamination. As countries like Russia, China and the US expand their Arctic presence, managing pollution becomes a strategic concern, intertwining environmental stewardship with regional security. (Concordia University, Eye on the Arctic, Phys.org, Science Advances)

US Advances Legally Mandated Drilling on Least Amount of Land Possible in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

On November 6, The Hill shared that the Biden administration has completed the final environmental review needed to advance oil and gas drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and stated that it would auction off the smallest legally allowable area – 400,000 acres – for potential drilling, to limit impacts on wildlife. A final decision on the new lease plan will be made in at least thirty days, with efforts to protect habitats for polar bears and caribou calving areas. (The Hill)

Take 4: The Biden administration’s move, mandated by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, showcases the complexities in US Arctic policy, where legal obligations and conservation priorities often clash. Arctic drilling rights in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge were initially approved by the first Trump administration but later revoked by the Biden administration. However, back in May 2024, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed a bill to restore drilling rights in the Refuge. In the wake of Trump’s reelection, the Biden administration – which had previously made efforts to thwart fossil fuel development in the region – opted to lease the minimum required area of 400,000 acres, much less than Trump’s ambitions. With Trump’s recent reelection, the outlook for the Refuge could shift significantly. Trump has been an outspoken advocate for Arctic drilling and has prioritized domestic energy expansion, so his renewed leadership could prompt policy changes that expand drilling areas in the Refuge. This exemplifies the broader challenges facing the Arctic, where political agendas often dictate the fate of fragile ecosystems. As climate change rapidly transforms the Arctic, nations with strategic and economic interests are increasingly viewing the region as a resource frontier, which can lead to irreversible environmental damage. The shifting political landscape in the US, from Biden’s limited leasing approach to Trump’s pro-drilling stance, underscores how policy oscillations influence environmental outcomes in the Arctic. As such, the Arctic’s future may depend more on political shifts than scientific warnings, creating a precarious situation for an ecosystem already on the brink. (Alaska Beacon, Bloomberg, Earth Justice, The Hill, The Hill, The Washington Post) 

Norway to Strengthen Arctic Monitoring with New Microsatellite

Defence Industry Europe reported on November 7 that Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace and the European Space Agency signed a contract to develop a microsatellite for the Arctic Ocean Surveillance (AOS) project. This microsatellite, the first in a planned constellation, will provide real-time, space-based monitoring of Norway’s Arctic waters. Kongsberg, along with partner organizations, will manage the development, production, and deployment of the satellite, which will carry an Automatic Identification System (AIS), passive radar detection, and a secure communication link by EIDEL. The satellite will launch from Andøya Spaceport in Northern Norway. (Defence Industry Europe)

Take 5: The development of this microsatellite in the context of the Arctic Ocean Surveillance (AOS) project reflects Norway’s growing emphasis on securing its maritime borders and reinforcing sovereignty in the increasingly contested Arctic. Norway’s AOS project, developed in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA) and various national defense agencies, aims to deliver real-time maritime data, enabling Norway to respond rapidly to security threats, illegal fishing, and other activities with the potential to undermine its Arctic interests in a context of increasing regional tensions. The microsatellites capabilities in the Arctic suggest a leap forward in regional surveillance and highlights Europe’s increasing involvement in the Arctic security equation. Moreover, this move signals that Arctic states are prioritizing sovereignty and security through technology. By expanding surveillance capabilities with smaller, more versatile satellites, Norway aims to establish a stronger presence in the High North without requiring a large physical fleet. The deployment of high-frequency, low-latency surveillance, managed from Norway’s Andøya Spaceport, allows for continuous oversight, underscoring the strategic shift towards digital assets in Arctic security. However, this could also lead to an escalation in the deployment of surveillance assets by competing powers, rending the Arctic into a focal point for rival surveillance networks. This, in turn, increases the potential for data competition and even cyber conflicts targeting these assets. Overall, this development highlights the strategic balancing act in the Arctic, where technological advancement in national security is essential but may contribute to broader geopolitical tensions in a complex and sensitive region. (Copernical, Defence Industry Europe, Kongsberg, Kongsberg, Maritime Informed)