Vladimir Putin’s hopes for his long-awaited meeting with Donald Trump

THE summit had yet to finish when Vladimir Putin decided to split. That was in the autumn of 2014: war was raging in eastern Ukraine, the Group of 20 was meeting in Australia, and the Russian president faced a frosty reception from Western leaders. He had been booted out of the Group of Eight (G8) and, in Barack Obama’s words, “isolated”. Cameras captured him eating lunch alone like a shunned schoolboy.

Though Russia’s posture has hardly changed since, the times have. This week Mr Putin has been hosting his own parade of world leaders in the run up to the World Cup final in Moscow on July 15th. The following day he will be in Helsinki to meet Donald Trump, who has called for Russia to be readmitted to the G8. Their tête-à-tête, to be held, as it happens, on the eve of the anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, will double as the death knell for the West’s policy of isolating Russia. “There’s an asymmetry: for Russia, the summit itself is a success,” says Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think-tank.

Even the news on July 13th that America’s special counsel, Robert Mueller, has indicted 12 Russian intelligence officers for interfering in the presidential election that brought Mr Trump to power seemed unlikely to alter things. Mr Trump is allergic to admitting any Russian involvement in his triumph, and in the past has simply refused to accept what his own intelligence machinery tells him about Russian hacking.

Beyond the symbolism, no one in Russia expects the meeting to produce breakthroughs. Instead, most see it as a way to restart an official dialogue that has broken down in recent years. Reviving channels to manage risks would be in America’s interests too. But much depends on how Mr Trump carries himself. A one-on-one session will offer Mr Putin a chance to sell his picture of the world. He may find a sympathetic listener in Mr Trump, especially if he harps on Mr Obama’s mistakes, the machinations of a “deep state” bent on keeping Russia and America at loggerheads, and the manipulations of the fake-news media. Coming on the heels of a testy NATO summit, the sight of the American president nodding along would make his nominal allies squirm. Yet Mr Trump endorsed a communiqué with tough language on Russia at that same summit, and bashed Germany for being dependent on Russian gas. He could surprise by barking at Mr Putin too.

The substance of talks will probably focus on familiar issues: election meddling, Syria, Ukraine and arms control. The latter is where interests align most. Both sides have complaints about violations of the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but would like to keep it alive. The same goes for the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which is set to expire in 2021. A directive to restart negotiations would be welcome.

Beyond that, the path is more fraught. Russia will repeat its complaints about NATO expansion, noting the presence of the Georgian and Ukrainian presidents at the meeting in Brussels. Mr Putin will also try to suss out Mr Trump’s true views on Ukraine, says Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, another think-tank. Indifference will be duly noted. If Mr Trump moves to recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as he has hinted he might, Mr Putin would obviously be thrilled—though the American president lacks the legal authority to do so in any formal way. Similarly, Russia knows that Congress has tied Mr Trump’s hands on sanctions. But Mr Putin would like to know where the lines of enforcement will be drawn. Of particular interest, says Mr Kortunov, is America’s view of Russian arms sales to American partners such as India or Vietnam.

On Syria, Mr Trump, along with his allies in Israel and the Gulf, wants Russia to push Iran out of the country. This is not likely to go far. Though Russia is not comfortable with the extent of Iran's influence in Syria, Mr Putin is not ready to torpedo relations with Tehran. Russia does not have the means to expel Iran, even if it wanted to, because Syria is too important to Iran. And Iran is too important to Russia on other fronts. Yet Mr Putin may pay some lip-service to the notion, perhaps agreeing to another vague ceasefire or limits on Iranian forces near the Israeli border, in the hopes of getting Mr Trump to withdraw American troops from Syria’s east and south in return.

Finally, there will be no avoiding the question of Russian meddling in the American elections. For Russia, the most pleasant version of the conversation would end with a broad pledge not to interfere in each others’ domestic affairs, or perhaps a pointed promise not to attack election infrastructure, while ignoring other forms of interference and denying any possible past misdeeds. “Putin understands that he needs to help Donald,” Mr Kortunov says. “The question is how far he’s willing to go.”