Tim Collins: Disappointing Donald Trump may be Vladimir Putin’s most dangerous miscalculation

While he’s still taking tough, things don’t look great on the military or economic fronts for Putin. On the battlefield the Russians have resorted to still more extreme cannon-fodder tactics with some thrusts being led, Mad Max style, in converted cars and trucks.

Ukrainian attacks have struck airfields far into Russia, destroying some very modern and expensive aircraft and air defence missile systems. Add to these the mysterious attacks in Moscow itself, including the destruction of a presidential limousine, and it is clear that either there is a capable Ukrainian sabotage and special-ops network in place or disgruntled Russians are now out to rid themselves of their president.

Meanwhile, Putin’s international allies remain present but increasingly preoccupied with their own problems. China’s focus is on Taiwan and its scuffles with the Philippines.

Lukashenko is clinging to power in Belarus by his teeth, with his army fully committed to his personal defence since the stolen election of 2020 and his sham victory in January this year.

The North Koreans have disappointed on the battlefield and an increasingly desperate Iranian regime is even talking of attacking the UK/US base in Diego Garcia as it faces a looming attack on its nuclear programme by Israel or the US or both.

For the Ukrainians the omens looked bad after Zelensky’s disastrous Oval Office encounter in late February, but now there is the real possibility of Putin upsetting president Trump. This could mean increased indirect support to the Ukrainians using what Republican Congressman Lindsey Graham described as “bone crushing” sanctions. This could mean sanctions not just on Russia but penalties for anyone who trades with the country.

There could also be renewed arms shipments, including the missiles that are proving the most effective. HIMARS and ATACMs are always on the Ukrainian shopping list and they deliver fast results.

A high-level Ukrainian source told me recently: “We have more targets than bullets, so to speak.” Targeted attacks on high-value assets in Russia − an S300 missile battery at $500m (€460m) a copy, an S400 at $1bn a copy − seriously degrade Russia’s capability. If two or three such assets were destroyed each week, then by June Russia would be begging for peace.

With effective sanctions in place replacements could not be made at all, never mind in a timely fashion. Such a strategic setback for Russia would mean the voluntary redrawing of the front lines. But that means the munitions must be delivered, not as in the past at a rate enabling Ukraine to survive, but in quantities that give the Ukrainians the edge to win.

But this is now an option that may be taken by the White House. It is the likely consequence of frustrating Trump and his declared resolve to end this war shortly after taking office. A disappointed president Trump is a very dangerous and unpredictable beast. Putin would be wise to realise that.