By Arunima Kumar and Robert Harvey
(Reuters) – Oil edged up on Monday, with investors cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and warned Iran of possible military action if it did not agree to a deal over its nuclear program.
The more active June Brent crude futures was up 43 cents, or 0.59%, at $73.19 a barrel by 1322 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was 47 cents, or 0.68%, higher at $69.83 a barrel. Front-month Brent, trading at $74.27, expires later on Monday.
Oil prices dropped earlier in the session before recovering and stabilizing at current levels.
“(Trump’s) threat on secondary tariffs on Russia and Iranian oil is a factor oil market participants are tracking, although he has indicated he is not planning to introduce them for now,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “But, there is a rising risk of larger supply risks down the road.”
Trump said on Sunday he was “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir Putin and will impose 25%-50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
China and India are major buyers of Russian crude and their acquiescence would be crucial to making any secondary sanctions package seriously hurt exports from the world’s second largest oil exporter.
Trump also threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.
Some analysts believe that Trump may not act on his threats, a view that is putting a cap on oil prices.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore said the market felt Trump would not follow through. If enacted, he said, the tariffs would be another step toward a trade war that would weigh on global growth and demand for crude oil.
On Monday several Chinese traders were unfazed by the latest threat. Three who spoke with Reuters all said Trump’s constant brinkmanship meant they discounted what he said.
“We expect WTI to stay in a range of $65 to $75 for now as the market assesses the impact of Trump tariffs on oil supply and global economy, as well as the supply situation from the U.S. and OPEC+,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities.
Elsewhere, talks to restart Kurdish oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have hit a snag as a lack of clarity over payments and contracts persists, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
(Reporting by Arunima Kumar, Robert Harvey, Yuka Obayashi, Anjana Anil and Jekaterina Golubkova; Editing by Jamie Freed, Joe Bavier, Chizu Nomiyama and Jan Harvey)
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