Russian leader Vladimir Putin is obsessed with the idea of creating a “USSR-2.0” and if Russia gets the chance to regroup its forces after the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin may attempt to attack even those countries that do not currently take the Russian threat seriously, says David Grigorian, Senior Fellow at M-RCBG at Harvard’s Kennedy School, in an article for The Telegraph.
If Putin manages to bring these countries back under Russian control, he would gain access to new resources, including recruits for future wars in Europe. That is why allowing Ukraine to lose and letting Russia frame it as a victory would be dangerous, says the expert.
Putin would not need much time to achieve his primary goal of reviving the USSR. Belarus would likely fall first, as it is already under Moscow’s influence.
Grigorian also believes the Russian president wouldn’t have to exert much effort to bring Armenia under his control. He noted that Armenia remains more under the Russian ruler’s sway than any other former Soviet republic.
Additionally, annexing Georgia would be easy for Putin. The expert emphasizes that the country’s ruling Georgian Dream party is pro-Russian. While the Georgian public is largely pro-Western, any dissent could be suppressed through coordinated efforts.
The analyst added that Azerbaijan might initially avoid direct annexation due to its close ties with Türkiye and good relations with Israel. However, Putin could seek Iran’s support to subjugate the country by exploiting ethnic minority tensions.
Furthermore, Central Asian republics would not be able to resist Putin’s pressure, Grigorian asserts. Kazakhstan, he said, could fall within hours in the event of a direct Russian assault, though it might also willingly accept an offer to join the new USSR. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan would likely lean toward joining Putin’s new alliance as well.
The analyst is confident that the “USSR 2.0” scenario can still be prevented. This would require a more decisive military response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Grigorian argued that the new budget package proposed by European leaders will help modernize the continent’s military capabilities but will do little to address short-term challenges on Ukraine’s battlefields.
Fortunately for Europe, Ukraine currently has the continent’s largest and most battle-hardened army. He believes Europe must redouble its efforts to help Kyiv hold the battle and not be engaged in the fighting itself.
Moreover, Russia’s economy is in a dire state. According to Grigorian, sanctions must be tightened, loopholes closed, and political pressure increased on countries that have repeatedly helped Moscow evade restrictions.
Europe must support pro-Western opposition movements, more actively use media and propaganda, and more extensively share intelligence with its partners.
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