Is the Black Sea truce beginning of end of US sanctions on Russia?

The White House announced on Tuesday (March 25) that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea and will begin discussions on halting attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure– a notable shift in a war that has defied diplomatic resolution for over two years.

But the details of the deal, and the conditions set out by Moscow, suggest it is not just a truce on the table– it may also be the first serious test of whether US-led sanctions on Russia are beginning to erode.

A diplomatic push from Washington

The agreement follows a March 18 call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first direct contact between the two leaders since Trump took office.

The deal is the most concrete sign yet of Trump’s stated aim to end the war in Ukraine, but it comes with significant strings attached.

While the US presented the ceasefire as a mutual understanding between Russia and Ukraine, the Kremlin quickly moved to define its own terms.

Shortly after the US announcements, the Kremlin said the Black Sea agreements would not come into effect unless links between some Russian banks and the international financial system were restored.

SWIFT relief as a sticking point

Central to Moscow’s demands is the reconnection of Russia’s agricultural lender, Rosselkhozbank, to SWIFT– the global payments system from which several Russian institutions were removed in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine.

Restoring Russia’s access to SWIFT would mark the most substantial reversal of sanctions since the war began. And while Washington’s agreement with Ukraine focuses narrowly on maritime security, its parallel deal with Russia reportedly includes a commitment to help seek sanctions relief– especially for agricultural and fertiliser exports, a long-standing Russian demand.

Such moves, however, would require European cooperation– a prospect far from certain given the nation’ consistent support for Kyiv.

A quiet review of sanctions underway

Earlier this month, Reuters had reported that the White House has directed the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions on Russia that could potentially be eased.

The sanctions offices were then reported to be drawing up a proposal for lifting sanctions on select entities and individuals, including some Russian oligarchs.

Zelenskyy rejects Kremlin’s terms

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his understanding was that the truce agreements did not require sanctions relief to come into force and would take effect immediately, calling the Kremlin’s statement an attempt to “manipulate” the deals.

The conflicting interpretations are a reminder of just how fragile the deal is– and how divergent the priorities of the parties remain.

With inputs from agencies