As Turkey witnesses its biggest protests in more than a decade, there’s intense speculation about whether these events will lead to a significant challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or a lurch further into authoritarianism.
The protests were prompted by the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the candidate from the main opposition Republican People's Party's (CHP) for the 2028 presidential election.
What happens next could have implications far beyond Turkey’s borders.
The War In Ukraine
Early in the war, Turkey achieved a significant diplomatic success by mediating a deal between Russia and Ukraine enabling both countries to export grain through the Black Sea.
The deal was a crucial factor in getting vital Ukrainian grain exports to countries in the Global South that rely heavily on them -- lasting for a year before Russia pulled out.
Its importance is underlined by the fact that Washington has made restoring it a key priority of its talks with Moscow and Kyiv.
Ankara has very much played its own game over the course of the war.
Although Turkey is a NATO member, Erdogan has sought to maintain good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders share a strongman style that has perhaps cemented their understanding.
But this has not stopped Turkish drone manufacturer Bayraktar pushing ahead with a planned factory in Ukraine. Its products played a key role in Ukraine’s defense in the early stages of the war.
Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies in Kyiv, says the driving force of Turkish foreign policy is economic.
“As far as regional questions go, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, the key role is played by business interests. They will revolve around Imamoglu the same way they currently revolve around Erdogan,” he told RFE/RL’s Current Time.
Western Ties -- The EU And Washington
Talking of business, Turkey’s largest trading partner is the European Union -- accounting for around a third of its trade, according to EU statistics.
A change of government in Turkey would almost certainly influence its relationship with Brussels, which put Turkey’s EU accession process on hold in 2018 amid criticism of democratic backsliding.
Imamoglu would likely push for better relations and a restart of Turkey’s EU accession talks.
But relations between Brussels and Ankara may warm anyway. As Europe seeks to reduce its defense reliance on Washington and form a military mission to Ukraine, Turkey’s armed forces could make it a key player.
European leaders face an uncomfortable choice between condemning Erdogan’s actions at home or benefiting from a key security relationship.
Economics was also top of the agenda when Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington this week.
Erdogan was hoping to get relief from sanctions imposed by US President Donald Trump in 2020 after Turkey purchased Russian S-400 air defense systems.
Iran And The Middle East
Developments in Turkey come at a time when Tehran and Ankara have been exchanging accusations and threats over interference in each other’s domestic affairs.
The two countries often have conflicting interests on various regional issues, such as Turkey’s support for the opposition to the Assad regime in Syria and its backing of Azerbaijan against Armenia.
Yet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said events in Turkey are “an internal matter.”
Aydin Akhavan, a political analyst based in Istanbul, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda, “Erdogan has presented himself as a pragmatic leader, shifting alliances whenever it serves his interests…. The opposition, on the other hand, is Eurocentric and advocates for a secular and democratic system. The world Erdogan envisions is certainly more aligned with Tehran’s preferences.”
Geography gives Turkey immense regional influence. Early in the Ukraine war, it closed the Bosphorus to Russian naval shipping, complicating Moscow’s communications with its forces in Syria.
Turkey’s influence on Syria, where it is one of the main allies of the interim government in Damascus, gives it many cards to play in international diplomacy. Turkish and Turkish-backed forces have played a big role in the conflict and will likely continue to do so now.
Central Asia
Turkey’s influence reaches beyond the Middle East and into the Central Asia, where overwhelming majorities in four nations -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan-- speak Turkic languages.
All but Turkmenistan are grouped together in the Organization of Turkic States, which also includes Azerbaijan.
Some regional experts have said Turkey represents an alternative pole amid concerns that Russian expansionism could be focused on areas in Central Asia with Russian-speaking populations, as it has been in Ukraine.
“They are conducting joint military exercises and are establishing arms procurement and production from markets other than Russia,” Assel Tutumlu, from Near East University in northern Cyprus, told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service in November.
Before the Ukraine war, much of Central Asia’s trade with Europe went through Russia. Tutumlu said Western sanctions on Russia had given impetus to new trade routes via Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Indeed, strengthening transport and logistics ties on the so-called Central Corridor of routes from China to Europe that bypass Russia was given top billing at a regional summit in Bishkek late last year.
The Balkans
Turkey is also a major player in energy markets, and nowhere is this more evident than in southeastern Europe.
Hungary, Romania, and Serbia are all major consumers of gas piped by Turkey. Turkstream is now the only pipeline moving Russian gas to Europe, running directly from Russia to Turkey under the Black Sea and then on to the Balkans.
“Ankara is making a renewed push to establish Turkey as the region’s premier energy hub,” noted Karim Elgendy of the Chatham House think tank in London in December.
Turkey is also a major investor in the Balkans, particularly Serbia. As well as promoting ambitious plans for a Belgrade-Sarajevo highway, it has floated plans to build its trademark drones in Serbia.
Drone deals have also been discussed in Bosnia and Albania.
In the Balkans, Turkey has used economic power as an icebreaker for political moves as it looks beyond countries with large Muslim communities to forge close relations elsewhere.
